Up to the present moment, almost no explicit support has been granted by governments in any part of the world to open source development. Therefore, this scenario assumes that things are going to progress following the same path.
Our consideration in this respect is that currently open source
systems are already a noticeable part of our computing environment,
especially in the server and development areas, where they are already
playing an important role in the information technology
infrastructure. As companies are discovering, it is possible to
live off open source.
And as the Red Hat and VA Research IPOs have showed , the investors are already betting with their money on their capability to succeed.
If no action is taken by the European Commission and other governments, we can expect that only private companies and individuals will try to walk this route. Since the movement is already proving to be self-sustaining in both the economic and the technical field, and it is competing head to head with the leaders in several market niches, it seems unreasonable to doubt its future health.
Probably open source software will be used as a standard part of the infrastructure by most governments, without the need of any specific endorsement. Instead of buying some proprietary systems, some government offices will decide to buy open source systems and servers. In fact, this trend is already starting to take shape in several countries (at least in Europe). Open source will be preferred in many situations simply on economic or technical grounds, as a lower cost or technically better alternative to proprietary systems. In this case no specific benefit will be reaped by governments, or by the societies they serve, except for the direct cost savings on licences.
In this scenario (and in part also in the others), some threats for the open source movements will also have to be dealt with. Among them, some which are already being discussed within the open source community are:
Some of these problems could be alleviated with the help of responsive governments, as will be discussed later.